Summer 2020 Overall
As the summer draws to a close, in this edition of our client briefing we decided to look at the performance of the property market in summer 2020 when compared with 2019.
What we observed was nothing short of a seismic change (obviously instigated by the Covid-19 pandemic) which shows that the property market is currently extremely buoyant and has comparative growth figures eclipsing anything that we have observed in the last 15 years.
If we look at the UK overall, the following graphic charts the change in trigger volumes from summer 2020 when compared with summer 2019…
In terms of the positive indicators (in green):
- Property coming to the market (New Instructions) were 24% higher in summer 2020.
- The volume of price reductions was 5% lower in summer 2020.
- Sales agreed were a massive 35% higher in summer 2020.
- Almost 11% less withdrawals in summer 2020.
The only slight blot on the landscape is a small increase in the number of property sales falling through. This is not surprising at all considering the time it takes to buy a property has increased, having been affected by lockdown.
So overall, this analysis paints an excellent picture for the property market. There are however some stark regional variations that we will now explore.
Summer 2020 New Instructions Regional Changes
The map below looks at the increase in New Instructions in summer 2020 compared with summer 2019 (green denotes large increases and red denotes small increases)…
Whilst every UK region experienced an increase in New Instructions in summer 2020 compared with the prior year, you can see that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland experienced slow rates of growth compared to England as their property markets re-opened later.
In England, there are still large regional variations. London experienced the highest levels of growth in New Instructions at 44%. Both the East of England and the South East supported this by experiencing growth rates in excess of 30%. By comparison, the North East only grew by 4%.
Summer 2020 Sales Agreed Regional Changes
The map below looks at the increase in Sales Agreed in summer 2020 compared with summer 2019 (green denotes large increases and red denotes small increases)…
Again, whilst all regions of the UK saw volume increases in the number of sales agreed in summer 2020 compared with the prior year, there are stark differences at a regional level. The East of England experienced the highest growth at 49% and the South East not far behind at 46%.
If we split Inner and Outer London using the same colour scale as the map above, they look thus…
We see that whilst growth in Inner London is slightly greater than Outer London, both are not as significant as the East of England and the South East. This suggests that post lockdown there is truth in the idea that some people are moving out of the city and into more rural locations.
Summer 2020 Price Reductions Regional Changes
The map below looks at the increase in Price Reductions in summer 2020 compared with summer 2019 (green denotes decreases in the number of price reductions – i.e. a good scenario for sellers)…
Here the situation is reversed from what we saw with New Instruction and Sales Agreed volumes increases. Whilst overall, there has been a reduction in the number of property price reductions, both London (20%) and Northern Ireland (16%) have seen large increases.
If we look at London in a little more detail, a great portion of the increases in price reduction triggers are coming from Inner and not Outer London…
Summer 2020 Fallen Through Regional Changes
The map below looks at the increase in Sales Agreed which have Fallen Through in summer 2020 compared with summer 2019 (green denotes large increases and red denotes small increases)…
The East of England, London and Northern Ireland experienced the highest growth of sales agreed which fell through. If we look at the detailed map of London…
We see that the increases in Inner London fallen throughs exceed the Outer London increases.
Summer 2020 Withdrawn Regional Changes
The map below looks at the growth in properties withdrawn in summer 2020 compared with summer 2019 (green denotes large decreases and red denotes large increases)…
Every region in the UK had a fall in the number of withdrawn properties in summer 2020 compared with the prior year (with exception to Northern Ireland which rose by 13%).
The West Midlands came out worst in Britain, with a -2.2% decrease in withdrawn volumes in summer 2020. 10 out of the remaining 12 regions saw double digit decreases in the level of properties withdrawn from the market.
So in summary, Summer 2020 was a great period for the property industry. The question is, will this heightened performance last when people start returning to the office and the children head back to school? This is another question for next week.