Way back in October 2020, we broke the news that we expected 325,000 properties to miss out on the stamp duty deadline. We were the first to calculate a number of this magnitude and we like to think that by sharing this information with our partners, we were instrumental in persuading the Chancellor to extend the stamp duty holiday to avoid the “cliff edge” that we reported at the time.

Today, we are again the first to report on the numbers of transactions that caught (and missed) the revised stamp duty holiday deadline of 30th June 2021.

The Stamp Duty Holiday in Numbers

One week on from the end of the busiest month the majority of estate agents, conveyancers, mortgage providers and removal firms have ever seen, we can reflect on the successes of the stamp duty holiday and also assess just how many households didn’t manage to meet the deadline. Our flash headlines on the stamp duty are as follows:

  • Completions – the volume of completions in the UK in the final week of the stamp duty holiday were 78,022*
    • On the final day (30th June 2021), there were over 36,000* completions
    • There are typically 19,000 completions per week, so the final week generated c4 times the usual volume
  • Missed out – there were 124,000* properties that had a sale agreed before 31st March 2021, but which didn’t hit the stamp duty deadline
    • In the Chancellors defence however, only 3,600* of these had their sales agreed prior to the start of 2021, so the “cliff edge” was more of a plateau

Benefits – in total 1.1m* transactions completed during the stamp duty holiday window when adjusting for the various window lengths in the four countries that make up the UK

The key question is how will the property market react to the end of the higher level of stamp duty holiday?

The Stamp Duty Holiday Aftermath

The doomsters will have predicted chain collapses, leading to massive increases in the volume of sales agreed falling through and creating a wave of withdrawn properties.

The headline is that this is not currently happening.

In fact, fallen through volumes for the 7 days since the 30th June are at an average of just 950 per day, which is almost the same as the average of the last year at 964.

Supply, which TwentyCi measure using the volume of new instructions, which are people putting their house up for sale with an estate agent, has also hardly moved in the last seven days with volumes down just 1%. The last week however is 9.8% below the weekly average for the last year suggesting a market slow down.

And finally demand, which TwentyCi measure using the volume of sales agreed, has also hardly moved in the last seven days with volumes down just 3%. The last week however is 8.0% below the weekly average for the last year, but this is to be expected with such exceptional peaks in the last year.

In summary, if you were expecting a property market crash, it’s certainly not happening, or not yet at any rate.

It will be very interesting to see whether we experience a similar set of aftermath circumstances prior to the £250K limit being removed in England and Northern Ireland on 30th September and what impact, if any, the stamp duty changes have on market activity throughout Q3. We will, of course, be there to keep a watchful eye on this for you.

* Please note that these are TwentyCi’s flash numbers which may be subject to change when Land Authorities release final numbers.

 

Source: TwentyCi